Confidence vote, live: Bayrou faces the Assembly, Macron prepares for the future and must "move quickly"
The essentials
- Barring any surprises, François Bayrou and his government will be overthrown this Monday, September 8, during the confidence vote scheduled to take place in the National Assembly starting at 3 p.m.
- How will the confidence vote take place? At 3 p.m., François Bayrou will take the podium to make a general policy statement, which will be accompanied by a question of confidence. He will be able to speak, without time limit, with a speech discussing the state of public finances. After the Prime Minister, each of the eleven parliamentary groups will be able to speak to answer this question: "Do you trust the Bayrou government to lead the nation's policy?" The vote will not begin until after this debate.
- At what time will the results be known? Each MP will take turns going to the podium to cast a ballot. Members will be able to grant their confidence, abstain, or refuse to vote. The result of the confidence vote should therefore be known by the end of the afternoon. If LFI, EELV, the Socialist Party, the National Rally, and the Union for the Democratic Movement (UDR) maintain their positions, at least 330 votes should oppose François Bayrou.
- If Bayrou falls, what will happen next? If the hypothesis of a vote of no confidence is confirmed, then François Bayrou would become the first Prime Minister under the Fifth Republic to fall on a question of confidence. Emmanuel Macron will then have to either appoint a new Prime Minister or dissolve the National Assembly, which would open the way to new legislative elections.
If François Bayrou's fall is confirmed this Monday, the next steps will depend on Emmanuel Macron. The head of state will have to make a decision, either: appoint a prime minister or dissolve the National Assembly. He seems more inclined to choose the first option, but has not specified a timeframe. Many are urging him to act quickly and appoint someone in the next few days, or even as early as September 9, to prepare for the "Block Everything" mobilization on September 10. Others expect an appointment by the end of the week. "We have to move quickly," Marc Fesneau declared on TF1, emphasizing that "speed should not be confused with haste": "There's no point throwing a name around without having the slightest idea of how we're going to construct" the budget and the political project.
A few hours before the confidence vote, François Bayrou is finalizing his speech, explains Marc Fesneau, former minister, president of the Modem group in the National Assembly and close to the Prime Minister on TF1. The elected official indicates that the head of government is in the "state of mind of someone who is trying to enlighten consciences on the subject of debt and the deficit." However, according to Marc Fesneau, while it is necessary to "always fight to the end," it is necessary to "be clear-headed" about the outcome of the vote, which leaves "little doubt."
To win the confidence vote, François Bayrou must win a majority of the votes cast, but not necessarily an absolute majority of the 574 seats (three seats are vacant). All opposition forces have planned to vote against him, representing at least 330 votes, including those from the four left-wing forces and those from the far right. But the votes against the Prime Minister could be higher if some elected officials from the presidential camp or LR were tempted to vote against François Bayrou. Only a handful of MPs from the government coalition could make such a choice, with those who do not wish to support the Prime Minister having the option of abstaining.
François Bayrou will speak at the National Assembly beginning at 3 p.m. to deliver a general policy speech before submitting to the vote of confidence he himself requested. The Prime Minister will have unlimited time to speak before giving the floor to each of the eleven parliamentary groups. He will also be able to respond to criticism before giving way to the vote.
L'Internaute
